That's Birdie All Day Long
The Core4
The Ghim Reaper
Well, I guess I do like to torture myself at the begginning of the 2022 golf season. That’s okay. I’m certain my boy Tommy D is gonna roast me on Sunday as well. Yet, the course just fits here for the Reaper. Ghim ranked 7th last season in fairway hit%, 5th in ball striking and 10th in approach. Now while the course is a little long here for Ghim’s liking, we did see him finish in 14th place here last season. The fact that he was 10th in the field in scoring last season perks my interest even further. There is always the “just wait until Sunday” argument with the Ghim. I’ll make sure to do everything in my power to create some cosmic event that prevents the inevitable meltdown, or the more likely mundane round 4 that will simply have him finish top-12. There is no doubt that Ghim will be highly owned here, but this is such a weak field that I simply can’t look past him in the 7K pricing tier.
Overall Stat Model: 3rd
Confi”dance” Model: 6th
Aggregate Model: 3rd
Power Rankings: 6th
Emliano Grillo
Grillo if you could putt we would have won so much more last year. Call me crazy, but the fact that Grillo only has one win on tour is alarming. The guy is an elite ball striker, and historically needs an average putter to contend. You would think that would be enough to get 2-3 more wins on tour. Yet, here we sit waiting on Grillo to figure out the short stick (never gonna happen at this point) and watch as his approach shots land a few feet from the hole. I guess I still kind of overlooked the best part here. Grillo actually won this event back in 2015. I don’t believe that course history is a must here, but we are talking about a golfer who should have more than one win on the PGA Tour. Be nice if he could get #2 this weekend.
Overall Stat Model: 2nd
Confi”dance” Model: 4th
Aggregate Model: 2nd
Power Rankings: 7th
Adam Svensson
This isn’t a joke. Yes, I am going overweight on a guy that no one really seems to know about. Did someone say leverage? He is coming in at sub 5% ownership on Fanshare Sports, and all my models seem to have him in a smash spot (famous last words). Regardless, the backstory on Svensson. He left college after his junior year to play professionally on the Candian Tour. Now, he did gain his PGA Tour card in 2019, but he lost his card after finishing 167th in teh FedEx Cup standings. Yet, back on the Korn Ferry Tour has shown some upside as he was a winner twice last year at the Club Car Championship as well as the Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship. Welcome back on tour Mr. Svensson. Don’t mess it up this time, and smash on Sunday.
Overall Stat Model: 4th
Confi”dance” Model: 26th
Aggregate Model: 4th
Power Rankings: 33rd
Charley Hoffman
I really should use one of he vintage photos of Hoffman here as his long locks were a sight to behold. I digress. The 44 year old is aging quite well on the PGA Tour. While many players will look at his recent course history at Silverado, I will look at last seasons stats to build my rationale. Hoffman ranked 3rd in the field in driving distance in 2021, and 29th in ball striking. Both of these are key stats for me this weekend, and I am hoping that the 2021 midseason form is the golfer Hoffman intends on being this weekend. While Hoffman has won 4 times on tour, his last victory was back in 2016 at the Valero. Older golfer’s have won here before. Drink the Kool-Aid Hoffman. Oh yea.
Overall Stat Model: 8th
Confi”dance” Model: 5th
Aggregate Model: 6th
Power Rankings: 3rd
The 19th Hole
Top Advice
Don't Suck
Additional Top Plays
Harold Varner III
Sebastian Munoz
Mito Pereira
High Risk Plays
Adam Svensson
Jason Dufner
Bo Hoag
Top 10 Overall Power Rankings (Stat Driven)
1. Jon Rahm
2. Webb Simpson
3. Charley Hoffman
4. Harold Varner III
5. Will Zalatoris
6. Doug Ghim
7. Emiliano Grillo
8. Sebastian Munoz
9. Kevin Na
10. Pat Perez
7K Power Rankings
1. Doug Ghim
2. Pat Perez
3. Hank Lebioda
4. Ryan Moore
5. Roger Sloan
6. Adam Schenk
7. Brian Stuard
8. Patton Kizzire
9. Russell Knox
10. Luke List
Can't Do It
Jon Rahm, why are you here?
Highest Cut% with 8%+ Ownership
Hudson Swafford - 50.92%
James Hahn - 50.89%
Brendan Steele - 47.64%
Luke List - 47.1%
Cameron Champ - 46.42%
Grab a brew...don't cost nothin...Core4 coming soon.
