That's Birdie All Day Long
4ore play
Collin Morikawa
I really don’t care that he’s going to be high owned, and I really don’t care for the narrative that his game is off…for those of you that haven’t watched…Morkiwawa’s game is hotter than ever. There is no added pressure for Morikawa considering the landscape of his career. If anything, he’s out to prove he is a viable candidate for #1 in the OWGR. Two golfers are priced higher than Morikawa, and I think they are valid pricing points. Especially when you lookat the pedigree of Deki and Xander. Yet, there is massive ownership leverage here when looking at this pricing tier, and I can’t ignore it.
The last little nugget I want to add here is that we really don’t know the overall health status of Deki. We’ve seen that neck cause him plenty of issues as of late, and you never know when it might just appear.
Overall Stat Model: 5th
Confi”dance” Model: 7th
Aggregate Model: 5th
Power Rankings: 3rd
Tommy Fleetwood
Do I ever really love playing Tommy? Of course not. Yet, here we are. This is more of a feel play for Fleetwood, and the fact that I know I am going to get 4 rounds out of him. He’s a DK scoring monster, and I am going to follow that trend when building my lineups this week. Fleetwood has never won on the PGA Tour. I’m not sure if you’re aware of that, and just to add insult to injury, you’re obviously not follwing this beautiful sport of bowling…ahem…golf. Will Fleetwood win? Probably not. More than likely we’ll be stuck in that top-5 or top-10 finish from him that we often see when we put plenty of lineups on his play and prowess.
Fleetwood has two top-25 finishes in Japan, and on similar style courses, ranks 6th overall in my DraftKings tournament style projections. The numbers don’t pop off the page, and because of this we leverage the field in both ownership and bias.
Overall Stat Model: 47th
Confi”dance” Model: 38th
Aggregate Model: 41st
Power Rankings: 33rd
Si Woo Kim
So it is going to be that type of weekend eh? We are going to do this to ourselves, but why not? As my good buddy Tom says, “It’s just money right?” Well, this is how we make some cash this weekend. Si Woo may have found something last week at the Shriners. The 8th place finish was fuled by a solid approach and tee-to-green game.
The appeal is that Si Woo Kim can score. Secondly, the fact that he is kind of home is a narrative that plenty are playing in fellow Korean Sungjae Im. While Sungjae is superior in talent, Kim is able to hold his own when those irons get hot. Let’s not forget that Si Woo has 3 wins on the PGA Tour, and has faced plenty of pressure both at major championships as well as at the President’s Cup. It isn’t like his wins were at garbage tournaments either. This is highlighted with his win at THE PLAYERS back in 2017.
Overall Stat Model: 38th
Confi”dance” Model: 14th
Aggregate Model: 22nd
Power Rankings: 14th
Sebastian Munoz
I am going to give you pivots at the end here, because I could see some really heavy ownership on Munoz by the time lineups lock. For now, we are projecting him around 12-14%, but I could realisitcally see that number getting up into the 20’s and that is too steep a price to pay for guys in the 8K range.
Munoz is a play simply because of his scoring prowess. I keep hammering this concept, but I want scorers in my DK lineups. Players that have the ability to maybe not win a tournament, but can rake with DK scoring. By the time we get to Sunday, you’re hoping you have players that were constantly in the top-10 in DK scoring for several rounds. The rest of the bonus points should sort themselves out on Sunday. If ownership goes crazy, pricing tier pivots could be Corey Conners (a bit high priced), Bezuidenhout, NeSmith, and Herbert.
Overall Stat Model: 15th
Confi”dance” Model: 20th
Aggregate Model: 11th
Power Rankings: 7th
The 19th Hole
Top Advice
Don't Suck
Additional Top Plays
Xander Schauffle
Sungjae Im
Corey Conners
Tom Kim
Cam Young
Wild Cards
Matt NeSmith
Adam Svensson
Tyrell Hatton
Troy Merritt
Davis Riley
Top 10 Overall Power Rankings (Stat Driven)
1. Sungjae Im
2. Xander Schauffele
3. Tom Kim
4. Collin Morikawa
5. Mito Pereira
6. Viktor Hovland
7. Sebastian Munoz
8. Corey Conners
9. Hideki Matsuyama
10. Tom Hoge
7K Power Rankings
1. Matt NeSmith
2. Kevin Streelman
3. Mark Hubbard
4. Luke List
5. Emiliano Grillo
6. Adam Svensson
7. JJ Spaun
8. Aaron Rai
9. Russell Knox
10. KH Lee
Can't Do It
-@rocktober19 mornings look...different? Can't do it. I would much rather be on a golf course.
-Paul Casey - why not?
-Mito- Look he ranks out great. Stats are going to make him pop in every model. Yet, his ownership is going through the roof right now, and it is a hard fade as I see many players in his pricing tier that can dominate this tournament.
-Overpriced Beer
Highest Top 10% with sub 10% Ownership
Tyrrell Hatton - 28.43%
Corey Conners - 27.94%
Lucas Herbert - 21.86%
Mav McNealy - 21.20%
Scott Stallings - 17.46%
Grab a brew...don't cost nothin...Core4 coming soon.
