That's Birdie All Day Long
4ore PLay
Scottie Scheffler
I’m a sucker for Scheffler. I was all over him last year at this event, and continued to ride that wave all the way through the Masters. Well, here we are looking at the defending champ coming in this weekend as kind of an unknown. Everyone is hyping Tom Kim. People are looking at the track history and recent form of Rahm. It just seems that Scheffler is getting lost in the shuffle and there is just so much upside to be had here with DK scoring. Of course you want your picks to win, and at this price anything outside of a top-5 won’t win you a GPP. Yet, it is a tough sell that Scheffler doesn’t have the game to light up a course the same way Rahm has done recently. Scheffler ranks 11th in the field from tee to green and 4th OTT. Both strong attributes for success here in Phoenix.
Overall Stat Model: 6th
Confi”Dance” Model: 4th
Aggregate Model: 8th
Power Rankings: 6th
The Terminator
Sungjae…are you ever going to win again? I took him as an outright this week, and I am going to core him in my DFS lineups. The course works well in Sungjae’s favor. You need to have a solid all around game to contend here, and Im is able to do that off the tee, on approach, and he has to scramble when necessary. Im ranks 19th in the field from tee-to-green, 18th OTT, 28th in ball striking, and 14th in bogey avoidance. Getting through the cut should lead to massive amounts of DK points this weekend.
Overall Stat Model: 17th
Confi”dance” Model: 10th
Aggregate Model: 11th
Power Rankings: 8th
J.T. Poston
Coming in at only $7300 is massive savings for anyone looking to roster mulitple people in the top tier. Yet, more importantly, we just see a different Poston so fro this year. He has had 4 straight top-25 finishes, and there is an additional bonus. I mentioned on the Cutline how course history is very predictive. Especially here at the WMPO. Poston over the last five years has dished out 3 top-30 finishes, and only once was he outside the top-35. The point being is that Poston feels like home here in Phoenix. He just needs to get that putter going and we could be looking at potential top-10 finish this Sunday.
Overall Stat Model: 36th
Confi”Dance” Model: 32nd
Aggregate Model: 32nd
Power Rankings: 29th
K.H. Lee
Well, I needed someone to kill the weekend. Enter KH Lee. I’m hoping for scoring galore from Lee, and the fact that I have him coming in at only 8% ownership has me itching to load up in single and three max contests. Lee ranks 82nd in the field in approach, and he’s so dominant off the tee. The fact that he is coming in with some form makes me very interested. K.H. Lee can get lightening hot. Steal a slate hot. Blazing. I do worry about Lee’s ability scramble, but his other attributes are just too good to ignore. Dig in Lee and send us for a wild ride this weekend.
Overall Stat Model: 29th
Confi”dance” Model: 29th
Aggregate Model: 25th
Power Rankings: 23rd
The 19th Hole
Top Advice
Don't Suck
Additional Top Plays
Rahmbo
Justin Thomas
Deki
.....
Look everyone at the top is solid. If you like a guy then stick to your gut or stat breakdowns. Whatever your rationale bank on it and trust yourself.
Wild Cards
Si Woo Kim
Joel Dahmen
Russell Henley
Trey Mullinax
Brendon Todd
Alex Noren
Lucas Herbert
Andrew Putnam
The Putters
***These guys don't appear as strong plays in your overall stat models, but have the goods on the dance floor to thrive in this tournament if they can put it together for 4 rounds. They are high risk plays, but as we've seen in just about every tournament, all you need is a hot putter. These are plays that I may or may not be considering, but use this for your information and process.
Taylor Montgomery
Brendon Todd
Chris Kirk
Maverick McNealy
Denny McCarthy
Andrew Putnam
Lucas Herbert
Kevin Kisner
Peter Malnati
Andrew Landry
Richy Weresnki
Brian Gay
Ricky Barnes
Watch Me Deliver
***These players hit greens like no other, but they just aren't pushing your models to the limit. Put it together for 4 rounds and pepper those greens, and you could reap the benefits. These are high risk plays, but nothing pays like low owned top-10 finishers who are smashing birdies over four rounds. These are plays I may or may not roster.
Russell Knox
Luke List
Davis Riley
Hayden Buckley
David Lipsky
EVR
James Hahn
Top 10 Overall Power Rankings (Stat Driven)
1. Rory McIIroy
2. Jon Rahm
3. Tony Finau
4. Xander Schauffele
5. Collin Morikawa
6. Scottie Scheffler
7. Max Homa
8. Patrick Cantlay
9. Sungjae Im
10. Tom Kim
7K Power Rankings
1. Corey Conners
2. Si Woo Kim
3. Tom Hoge
4. Jason Day
5. Brian Harman
6. Keith Mitchell
7. Brendan Steele
8. K.H. Lee
9. Russell Henley
10. Alex Noren
Can't Do It
-Paul Casey...we fade this guy even when he's not playing.
-Aaron Wise- This might burn me, but this guy misses fairways a lot, historically had a hard time avoiding bogeys. Suspect course history even with limited sample size. Wise is coming in at only 10%, but people tend to buy him even when they shouldn't. Part of me is really hoping for a MC so his ownership really goes down in future tournaments.
Tony Finau- I love looking at course history at this event. One second place and a bunch of missed cuts screams perfect GPP play, but I'm not going to buy any shares of Tony this week.
Brian Harman- Highest projected ownership of the 7K range. Plenty of other options.
Highest MC% at 8%+ Ownership
Lucas Herbert - 40.44%
JT Poston - 37.38%
KH Lee - 36.83%
Chris Kirk - 36.09%
Rickie Fowler - 35.45%
Grab a brew...don't cost nothin...Core4 coming soon.
