That's Birdie All Day Long
4ore PLay
Si Woo Kim
Begging for a hot putter is a bold strategy. Yet, there are other reasons that I love Si Woo this weekend. First, he doesn’t fit the ideal recent form narrative in that we have not seen him play since the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Regardless, we saw excellent ball striking and play that weekend which leaves me hopeful for much of the same this weekend. Yet, this is common for Si Woo in his preparation for Augusta. He tends to take a month off, dialing in his game, and preppring for Augusta here at the Valero. While we haven’t seen a top-10 finish here in San Antonio, I just believe that we have a very different golfer from years past. He has only missed one cut this season, and has five top-20 finishes. Looking at this years PGA stats, Kim ranks 16th in ball striking, 11th off the tee, and 28th in strokes gained tee-to-green when compared to the rest of the field. Now while his approach game does need some improvement, I am willing to gamble on some positive regression to where he will be as dominant as he has been historically. Of all the indiviudals on this list, Si Woo is the one player who can destory your lineups. Yet, the upside is hard for me to ignore.
Overall Stat Model: 14th
Confi”Dance” Model: 14th
Aggregate Model: 20th
Power Rankings: 21st
Mito Pereira
As usual, the Mito bait is out there. The stats, course, and recent form all scream “play me”. So what do we do when the normal chalk isn’t getting any love? We lock him in. For clarification, Mito is not a part of next week’s field for The Masters. The only way he makes it there is with a win this week. So there should be some extra motivation. Yet, what is most appealing for me is the fact that Mito dominating the field in key stats. When compared to the field, Mito ranks 3rd in approach, 7th in GIR, 7th in scrambling, 9th in scoring. and 23rd OTT. Add the fact that we saw a 27th place finish at The Valspar and I am sold on adding him to my core. I do have some worry that he’s never played here before, but I feel that he has enough talent to put it all together over 4 rounds of touranment play.
Overall Stat Model: 9th
Confi”dance” Model: 7th
Aggregate Model: 4th
Power Rankings: 8th
Matt Nesmith
This is just where we are at this week. We are loading up on golfers the likes of NeSmith. I don’t hate the pick here, but one thing that I love about NeSmith here is the fact that his ownership is low. I honestly thought he was going to be much popular. Yet, most of that love is going Steele’s way at the moment. NeSmith has made 3 of the last 4 cuts, but I am really not holding anything against him for his failure at THE PLAYERS. There were just too many factors out of his control that played against him that weekend. In the other three tournaments, we see a two top-25 finishes, with one of them being a 3rd place finish at the Valspar. 27-years-old and zero wins on the PGA Tour. We have witness plenty of upside from NeSmith and we could potentially have another first time winner on the PGA Tour this season. Every player not playing next weekend has their eyes on the top prize. NeSmith has enough to get there.
Overall Stat Model: 3rd
Confi”Dance” Model: 20th
Aggregate Model: 9th
Power Rankings: 22nd
Kevin Streelman
Streelman is no stranger to the FORE PLAY. Picking the right spots for the 42-year-old is key. The reason DFS players are fading Streelman is due to his lack of distance. It isn’t surprising when research leads you to see that two of these par-5’s are over 600 yards. Yet, 2019 and 2018 yeilded top-10 finishes, and he hasn’t missed a cut here over the past 5-years. I’ve mentioned that course history really doesn’t tailor itself to San Antonio, but some courses just playe well for certain players. Streelman lives in Arizona, and it is apparent that being this close to Texas golf does tend to produce some success. Streelman has two wins on the PGA Tour in his career. Having tasted the Masters Tournament before, don’t be surprised if Streelman makes another run here. He’s running hot right now. A 7th place finish at the Valspar, 22nd at the Players, and a 16th place finish at the Honda Classic. Let’s ride him while he’s hot.
Overall Stat Model: 19th
Confi”dance” Model: 12th
Aggregate Model: 8th
Power Rankings: 8th
The 19th Hole
Top Advice
Don't Suck
Additional Top Plays
Rory McIIroy
Jordan Spieth
Gary Woodland
Luke List
Davis Riley
Austin Smotherman
Corey Conners
Wild Cards
Ben Martin
David Lipsky
Jhonattan Vegas
Bryson DeChambeau
Martin Laird
Doug Ghim (why do I do this to myself?!?)
Sahith Theegala
Top 10 Overall Power Rankings (Stat Driven)
1. Rory McIIroy
2. Hideki Matsuyama
3. Keegan Bradley
4. Jhonattan Vegas
5. Gary Woodland
6. Tony Finau
7. Abraham Ancer
8. Mito Pereira
9. Kevin Streelman
10. Russell Knox
7K Power Rankings
1. Doug Ghim
2. Lanto Griffin
3. Martin Laird
4. Alex Smalley
5. Lucas Glover
6. Sahith Theegala
7. Matthew NeSmith
8. Rickie Fowler
9. Brian Stuard
10. CT Pan
Can't Do It
-Keegan Bradley- We've seen volitile Keegan. Yet, ownership at roughly 12% at this point and more than likely rising? We know how crazy Keegan's game can get, and the only action I'll have is a first round leader bet.
-Patton Kizzire- I'll be the first to say that in this field, at $8,000, it is hard to pass over Kizzire here. Yet, I think this ownership goes up, especially in single entry contests. Careful with this chalk.
-Abraham Ancer- Believe me I don't want this to be the case. I think Ancer can, and should play well here. Yet, $10,300 is a little much for me to eat this chalk after a missed cut and the Texas resident narrative.
Highest MC% at 8%+ Ownership
Nick Taylor - 46.68%
Lucas Glover - 45.48%
Matthew NeSmith - 45.20%
Davis Riley - 43.39%
Sahith Theegala - 43.28%
Grab a brew...don't cost nothin...Core4 coming soon.
