The Course Report
TPC Potomac
About TPC Potomac
It didn’t take long for the reopening in 2019 for TPC Potomac to get elite recognition as Golf Digest spoke highly about the course changes. Placing it as one of the top courses to play in Maryland. Since then we’ve seen the course sparingly on the PGA Tour, but highlighted specifically in 2017-2018 when the course hosted the Quicken Loan National.
Per usual, the easiest scoring holes were found on the par-5’s during this two year span. While the hardest hole was the par- 11th. In fact, the 11th hole played +1.521 strokes in 2017, but a much easier .314 strokes above par in 2018. The vast difference was due to course setup, as the tournaments was trying to mirror what could be potential US Open conditions in 2017, while they scaled back the difficulty in 2018. It is key to get a lay of the course this weekend to determine how difficult the track will play.
Stanley and Molinari were the winners those weekends. Stanley scored just a -7 while Molinari scored a -21 under par. To be fair, Molinari did win the tournament by 8 strokes. He simply dominatated. So it wasn’t as if the course wasn’t playing difficult.
One of the narratives this week will be the approach shots that range in the 150-200 yards. The long par-5’s and the 7 par-4’s that will range over 450 yards are going to be the starting point for plenty of rosters and sports book choices. Distance, while mitigated off the tee will come massively into play on approach shots.
Another key aspect is going to be the success on par-3’s. Both winners through all 4 rounds failed to be penalized on any of the par-3’s. While I’m not weighing this heavily, it does have some merrit. Two fo the par-3’s are over 200 yards, and one of the par-3’s on the back 9 is nearly 200 yards in length. While par-3 scoring isn’t an indication of a projected winner, it will help you make decisions on players you’re on the fence with. Players in the field that do well on par-3’s of that length include Hubbard, ZJ, Taylor, Ancer, Hossler, Laird, Smalley, Stuard, Hatton, Day, and Conners.
Similar to Harbour Town, success is going to stem from hitting fairways. If you’re spraying at all off the tee, it could be a short weekend. Yet, it could be one of these stats that are potentially overvalued. Looking at 2018, only 2 players who finished in the top-10 did the same strokes gained off the tee. The same can be said in 2017. Contradictory to that, only 2 players in 2018 rank outside the top-25 in the top-10 in strokes gained on appraoch, and just 4 outside the top-25 in 2017. If you have to pick a stance it would be advisable to stick to approach and tee to green game.
Similar to last week, we enter a tournament with limited information. The nice thing here is that we do have two years of useful reliable data. Pay attention to what the pros are saying this week.
TPC Potomac
Architect: Ed Ault, Tom Clark and Ed Sneed (Redesigned in 2009)
Greens: Bent Grass
Green Size: Updating Soon
Stimpmeter: 11-12
Length: 7,160 yards- Par 70
Water Hazards: 5-Holes
Bunkers: Updating Soon
Weather Forecast
Nuggets and Tidbits
- This should be common sense, but we know how that usually works out, this years tournament is being played at TPC Potomac and not at Quail Hollow Golf Club.
- Be cautious in how much you weight driving distance when hunting for those players that can dominate the 200 yard range.
- Putting can often tell us how a tournament is going to play out. In 2018, 3 of the top-10 players on the greens missed the cut. The same can be said in 2017.
- Both Stanley and Molinari dominated the field from tee to green in their respective victories.
- Rickie Fowler, when he was good, did well here. Have fun with that.
Approach Shot Distribution
Past Winners
Homa’s path to victory was easy on Sunday, but it wasn’t without its share of obstacles.
That obstacle was an hour-long rain delay, which actually set up ideal conditions for Homa to shoot a 4-under 67 on Sunday and win by three strokes at 15 under for the week.
It was a wild Sunday, and Jason Day was all over the course.
Entering the “Green Mile”, Day had just bogeyed two of the last three holes, and had only hit 4 of 12 fairways to that point. So when you can’t hit them solid, then you better hope for a bit of luck.
On the par-3 17, Day fired a pin seeking rocket that nearly went in for an Ace, but more importantly, luck was on his side because if that ball had not hit the pin it more than likely would have found the water.
This Wells Fargo Championship was not played at Quail Hollow, as the course was seeing extensive rennovations to make it even more challenging.
Regardless of the venue, the touranment was filled with drama to the end. Many thought that Dustin Johnson was going to walk away with his fourth straight victory, but Harmans’s birdie on 17 followed by his birdie on 18 sealed the victory.
*Played at Eagle Point Golf Club
An absolute stunner of a win for Hahn as he entered the tournament missing 8-straight cuts and earned his second win on Tour.
Hahn’s win did not come easy. He bogeyed the 18th and allowed a window of opportunity for Roberto Castro to win in a playoff. Castro hit the water and allowed Hahn to play conservatively and score a par for the win.
There was no doubt that Rory was walking away the winner in 2015. He even opened the tournament with 3/1 odds on favorite.
McIIroy smashed. Literally. He set the new course record. He broke the birdie record for the tournament, pouring in 26 for the weekend.
Holmes captured his second PGA Tour win, and his first since 2008.
No stranger to Quail Hollow, Holmes outlasted Mickelson and McIIroy with his 54-hole lead as neither could capitalize on scoring opportunities. Homles nailed back-to-back birdies to start the back 9 and never looked back.
Ernst’s win was certianly one of the best Cinderella stories many have ever heard on the PGA Tour.
22- years old and ranked near the bottom of the OWGR rankings, Ernst won in what was only his 9th career start. What made it more special was his win against a solid David Lynn in a playoff with a par on the first hole.
Rickie Fowler outduled McIIroy and D.A. Points to win his first PGA Tour event, and to what many considered at the time would be a career filled with multiple majors.
Fowler started Sunday 3-strokes behind the leader, but found ways to overcome adversity while others succumbed to pressure. The key mishap was McIIroy’s bogey on the 17th hole which allowed Fowler the opporutnity win his first PGA touranment.
It took a 3-man playoff, but Johnson beat Louis Ossthuizen and Marc Leishman by shooting a 15, 1 under in a four hole playoff.
Johnson was a surprise win as just the week before his prep came in Illinois at the John Deere Classic. This was Johnson’s second major win, and his first Claret Jug.
Entering with a six-stroke lead over the field, McIIroy went from dominant to just hanging on. Still, no golfer ever got withing two strokes the entire day, and he held his composure despite struggles off the tee and on the greens.
In winning, McIIroy became the seventh wire-to-wire winner in Open Championship history.
After winning the Scottish Open the week prior, Mickelson birdied four of the last six holes and became the Open Champion.
To this point, Phil had come close to winning, but had often doubted his abilites on links style courses.
Els began Sunday 6 shots back, but still clinched the vicotry after Adam Scott imploded.
Els’ 68 was a comeback of epic proportions when you consider the fact that Scott was still winning by 4 strokes on the 15th tee.