That's Birdie All Day Long
The Core4
Aaron Rai
Two gloves? Yep. Past winner? Yep. Aaron Rai isn’t going to be a sneaky pick this weekend but I do like the upside for a player that won at this course in 2020 by outlasting Tommy Fleetwood in extra holes. Point being, I like Rai coming back to the tour that he is comfortable with looking to pad his resume’ at a course that he knows very well. Rai has made 7/8 cuts, with his last miss coming at the Wells Fargo. Over his last 20 tournaments he’s gained strokes in every major statitistical category with the exception being putting. Now the putter is arguably the biggest issue that Rai has, and the fact that some major players are showing up this week could cause many to tread with caution. Yet, I’m loving his ability to play amazing in windy condition, his ability to score and his knowledge of being able to play across the pond. Rai ranks 27th in the field on par-5’s, 15th in GIR’s, and 15th in ball striking. These are all key stats to succeed this weekend.
Overall Stat Model: 41st
Confi”dance” Model: 31st
Aggregate Model: 40th
Power Rankings: 33rd
keith mitchell
Mitchell’s recent form is very impressive. Over the last 4 tournements, we’ve seen him finish in the top-20 in three of them. Now while his approach game is often stuck in neutral, this challenge gives him the ability to use his ability to hit these fairways with the best of them. Yet, the one thing that could separate Mitchell is his ability to putt. We have witnessed massive improvements with the short stick as Mitchell has gained nearly 2 strokes with the putter in his last ten tournaments. Mitchell won’t be the most popular pick this weekend, but he certainly has the skills to pull out of Scotland with a top-10.
Overall Stat Model: 34th
Confi”dance” Model: 30th
Aggregate Model: 33rd
Power Rankings: 30th
joaquin niemann
He looked worn out, and didn’t want to be at the Traveler’s. As we’ve often seen on the PGA Tour, sometimes you have it and sometimes its missing. Yet, I’ll write this very plainly. The player of the year Scottie Scheffler missed the cut at the PGA Championship and no one threw their hands up thinking he was done. The same can’t be said for Niemann. He’s having a special year. Winner of the Genesis as well as plenty of top-5’s show me that Niemann’s game is conitnuing to trend in the right direction. Over his last 10 tounraments he’s gained nearly 6 strokes tee to green. On top of that, he ranks 24th in the field on approach, 16th in scoring, and 19th on par-5’s. While I don’t think this weekend will be a simple scoring fest, the fact that we will have we conditions do tailor the track towards birdies. I’ll take Niemann’s ability to be one of the better players in the field with his irons and hope his putter pulls through.
Overall Stat Model: 5th
Confi”dance” Model: 6th
Aggregate Model: 8th
Power Rankings: 5th
tyrell hatton
The six-time Euro champ eanred 4 of those victores on the rolex circuit. In addition, he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational on the PGA Tour in 2020 with a one-stroke win over Marc Leishman. The point being is that Hatton knows how to win, and he’s had amazing success here in Europe. I will agree that the recent form has been suspect. He just hasn’t had the “it” factor, but it was more to the fact that his ability to hit fairways was so poor. Luckily, Hatton comes back to Europe where the fairway generocity will be plentiful, and the approach shots will highlight his strengths.
Overall Stat Model: 11th
Confi”dance” Model: 12th
Aggregate Model: 9th
Power Rankings: 9th
The 19th Hole
Top Advice
Don't Suck
Additional Top Plays
Scottie Scheffler
Justin Thomas
Deki
Mito
Sungjae Im
Wild Cards
Jason Kokrak
Cameron Tringale
Corey Conners
Sam Burns
Viktor Hovland
The Putters
***These guys don't appear as strong plays in your overall stat models, but have the goods on the dance floor to thrive in this tournament if they can put it together for 4 rounds. They are high risk plays, but as we've seen in just about every tournament, all you need is a hot putter. These are plays that I may or may not be considering, but use this for your information and process.
Cam Smith
Troy Merritt
Lucas Herbert
HV3
Tommy Fleetwood
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Billy Horschel
Si Woo Kim
Watch Me Deliver
***These players hit greens like no other, but they just aren't pushing your models to the limit. Put it together for 4 rounds and pepper those greens, and you could reap the benefits. These are high risk plays, but nothing pays like low owned top-10 finishers who are smashing birdies over four rounds. These are plays I may or may not roster.
Antoine Rozner
Henrik Stenson
Rusell Knox
Doug Ghim
Matt NeSmith
Justin Rose
Garrick Higgo
Tom Hoge
Top 10 Overall Power Rankings (Stat Driven)
1. Jon Rahm
2. Justin Thomas
3. Xander Schauffele
4. Collin Morikawa
5. Joaquin Niemann
6. Matt Fitzpatrick
7. Scottie Scheffler
8. Sam Burns
9. Tyrell Hatton
10. Patrick Cantlay
7K Power Rankings (Stat Driven)
1. Tyrell Hatton
2. Keegan Bradley
3. Mito Pereira
4. Chris Kirk
5. Justin Rose
6. Gary Woodland
7. Jason Kokrak
8. Keith Mitchell
9. Jhonattan Vegas
10. Sebastian Munoz
Highest Cut% with 8%+ Ownership
Lucas Herbert - 44.13%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout - 43.59%
Victor Perez - 42.26%
Robert Macintyre - 40.78%
Billy Horschel 37.22%
Can't Do It
-Paul Casey- Yes, I know he's not teeing it up.
Grab a brew...don't cost nothin...Core4 coming soon.
