That's Birdie All Day Long
4ORE Play
Brian Harman
You start the sexiest golf page on the internet with Brian Harman? Where is Xander? Where is Rory? What about everyone’s favorite mullet? Last years contest wasn’t won by having convictions on the players starting -8 or better. No, last years contests were won with the likes of rostering Kevin Na, Daniel Berger and Billy Horchel. The average cost of those players was less than 6K. The point being is that getting the top right, or even building from the top down, is flawed for this tournament. You’re starting with a field of 29 golfers. That’s it. In truth, the Zalatoris WD makes this even harder. So my process this week is building a core with the players that aren’t sexy. Are we talking go full out 100% ownership in every contest? Maybe. I’m not certain I’m there yet. But I am in on these guys for a variety of reasons.
Harman is not going to pop in anyones tournament model. Yet, where he does shine is with his putter. If you haven’t noticed, a putter can easily win you a tournament. In fact it can win you a lot of PGA Tournaments. Cam Smith has done it several times, and just recently won The Open Championship becuase of the flat stick. Harman has that ability, especially on Bermuda, where his long term putting numbers look really solid. There are additional factors. While Harman is incredibly long with the driver, he is very accurate as he rnaks 2nd in the field in fairway hit%. Another aspect I like is his ability to scramble, and over 4 rounds, we are going to see plenty of those situations come up. The final piece of the puzzle comes in the form of Harman ranking in the top-10 in rounds in the 60’s. A lot of emphasis in plenty of lineups is going to be the initial placement points the golfer recieves. This is going to drastically change over 4 rounds as it is highly improbably that we will see anything linear with the final standings and DK pricing.
Overall Stat Model: 23rd
Confi”dance” Model: 18th
Aggregate Model: 22nd
Power Rankings: 18th
Sepp Straka
Even for me, who takes plenty of risk, this is just a hard pill to swallow. Now the first thing I want to point out is that Straka is a Georgia resident. I’ve harped on this in the past, but where these golfers live matters. There is comfort in being close to home, and I’ll have that play into rostering Straka this week. Speaking to one of the biggest fish in the PGA DFS community, he reafirmed the love for Straka, but had a feeling that he wasn’t going to be overlooked. That might be the case, but the one luxury we have is that we are building this week from the bottom up. Top down is going to get lineups in trouble this weekend, especially if you’re looking to diversify the players who are being heavily touted. I digress, back to our boy Sepp.
Straka doesn’t fit the mold. In fact, he’s never played at East Lake competitively on the PGA Tour, and all main numbers for success here show him on the lower end of simple models. Yet, there are factors that need to be considered. His 2022 stats show some promising signs of success here for Straka. The first being that ranks 10th in the field for fairway hit%, but he ranks 1st in rounds in the 60’s. In addition, I really like Straka’s form coming into this week. He followed up his second place finish at the St. Jude with a top-30 finsih last weekend at the BMW. This is after he missed six straight cuts. The other aspect I like is where Straka has had success. He lucked out at THE PLAYERS with the right wave and finished in 9th place, he was the winner at the Honda Classic on Bermuda greens, and scambled just well enough to place top-10 at the RBC Heritage. Of course these courses are different in comparison to East Lake, but it shows his upside. The last bit of encouragement is that Straka has gained strokes in every major statistical category in his last two tournaments. We’re looking for the Kevin Na upside. I’ve a feeling ownership projections might be a tad high for Straka, but even if they stay at 18% I’m going to be overweight. Remember it is only 4 rounds we need from Straka. Oh, and one more thing, the photo is intentional to make everyone feel better about how this could just be a potential disaster.
Overall Stat Model: 27th
Confi”dance” Model: 26th
Aggregate Model: 25th
Power Rankings: 26th
Jon Rahm
My guy Andy Lack has stressed how amazing Rahm has been OTT. I 100% am on board. Rham has just seemed to struggle everywhere else in his game, and this has literally only led to one victory this season. I am one who believes that hard work pays off, and I have this itch that Rahm once again becomes the leverage for this weekends DFS and early Showdowns. Rahm comes in priced at $10,900, and for this skill set that seems like a steal. On top of that, anyone settling above Rham for Xander, Cantlay or Scheffler are going to bypass him and immediate head straight down to Rory and JT. Now this is a hypothetical, but even at the 19% ownership, it just feels a little too high for how I believe most lineups are going to be constructed this weekend. For additional leverage, make sure you take advantage of the contests associated with your favorite podcasts, and you’ll be suprirsed at the ownership you’re going to get Rahm at.
In my DFS projections, Rahm ranks 4th overall in his historic course averages. Looking at correlating tournaments, his projections fall into the top-10. Finally, Rahm ranks #1 in my tournament model. I’m certain others are building cookie cutter models that aren’t giving Rahm the respect that he deserves. All of this is going to pay off in the long run, and the season that Rham is having from the Tee Box could finally pay off massively for the 7-time winner.
Overall Stat Model: 1st
Confi”dance” Model: 4th
Aggregate Model: 1st
Power Rankings: 3rd
viktor hovland
I just can’t help myself. Scrambling is not on Hovland’s resume’. Neither is his around the game. To be fair, there are going to be plenty of issues around the green for several golfers thanks to the Bermuda grass. Regardless of the sentiments surrounding Hovland, I am once again seeking massive upside. It can’t be understated how important being in the fairway is here at East Lake. For this season, Hovland ranks 13th in the field for fairway hit%, 11th in appraoch, and 8th in birdie average. While a 35th place finish at the BMW might be concerning to most, it is important to point out that he was way off in approach. That is bound to fix itself on the driving range with the Tour Championship on the line. From a pricing standpoint, there is a concerning aspect about Hovland. He is the second highest priced golfer in the tier of players that have only won twice or less on the PGA Tour. I know that Hovland’s youth is a factor in this number, but part of that youth is experience, and I wonder if he has enough of it to compete for 4 rounds. Stallings, Homa, Morikawa, Horschel, Deki, SPieth and Adam Scott are all priced lower than Hovland and they have more wins on the PGA Tour. Is the starting spot of -1 too far away from the top of the leaderboard? Absolutely. It would be ludicrous to think Hovland could win the tournament starting so far behind. Yet, after 4 rounds I’m willing to bank on the upside for Viktor, and hope that he is sitting within the top-10.
From a build standpoint, if you’re rocking pieces of this core, it allows you to engage other players in the top tier.
Overall Stat Model: 6th
Confi”dance” Model: 17th
Aggregate Model: 17th
Power Rankings: 15th
The 19th Hole
Top Advice
Don't Suck
Additional Top Plays
Rory McIIroy
Justin Thomas
Xander Schauffele
High Risk Plays
J.T. Poston
Tom Hoge
Cam Young
Cam Smith
The Putters
***These guys don't appear as strong plays in your overall stat models, but have the goods on the dance floor to thrive in this tournament if they can put it together for 4 rounds. They are high risk plays, but as we've seen in just about every tournament, all you need is a hot putter. These are plays that I may or may not be considering, but use this for your information and process.
Cam Smith
Sepp Straka
Brian Harman
Billy Horschel
JT Poston
Watch Me Deliver
***These players hit greens like no other, but they just aren't pushing your models to the limit. Put it together for 4 rounds and pepper those greens, and you could reap the benefits. These are high risk plays, but nothing pays like low owned top-10 finishers who are smashing birdies over four rounds. These are plays I may or may not roster.
Scottie Scheffler
Aaron Wise
Jon Rahm
Collin Morikawa
Top 10 Overall Power Rankings (Stat Driven)
1. Rory McIIroy
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Jon Rahm
4. Tony Finau
5. Xander Schauffele
6. Patrick Cantlay
7. Justin Thomas
8. Corey Conners
9. Sungjae Im
10. Sam Burns
Sub 10K Power Rankings (Stat Driven)
1. Tony Finau
2. Justin Thomas
3. Sungjae Im
4. Corey Conners
5. Joaquin Niemann
6. Sam Burns
7. Collin Morikawa
8. Cameron Young
9. Aaron Wise
10. Viktor Hovland
Can't Do It
-For the weekend, I'm not going to eat the 30%+ owned Aaron Wise. Every other player is going to be chalky enough, but Wise is just going to be overowned. I'll look for him to stumble along the way. Adam Scott almost fits this same description.
-Scottie Scheffler has been struggling with the putter. Not that I'm going to say this is the best rationale to fade someone, but it is something we have seen recently in his game. I'm going to be underweight.
Highest Cut% with 8%+ Ownership
Seamus Power - 55.34%
Jhonattan Vegas - 39.53%
Sam Burns - 36.98%
Russell Henley - 36.26%
Ian Poulter - 33.86%
Grab a brew...don't cost nothin...Core4 coming soon.
