That's Birdie All Day Long
4ore PLay
sam Burns
Holy shit do I love punishing myself early in the season. Burns is going greatly ignored this week when compared to the rest in the field, especially with those sitting in this top half of the DK pricing tier. Right now, I’ve him projected at around 20% ownership, and that is likely to change depending on contest selection. Burns lies in a pricing tier at which many players are looking at different options for their cores. Adding Burns as an arguable lock in our build process leverages the field with a player that can drive the ball far, dial it in approach, and has historically just kicked ass on the short grass. Many are going to argue that his approach game is flawed for this field, but I really believe that most are looking at his ball striking numbers rather than his straight on approach play.
Overall Stat Model: 9th
Confi”Dance” Model: 19th
Aggregate Model: 12th
Power Rankings: 14th
Sungjae IM
I stated on the Cutline that you’re going to need to eat chalk somewhere. Sungjae is the piece for me. The reason is that he’s just way too cheap at the low end of the 8K range and has such massive upside to win this tournament. One other aspect of past finishes in the TOC, there were massive opportunities for the best players in the world to finish in the top-10. I’m really focusing on that by rostering as many of these players as possible. Im’s price allows me to build lineups with that thought in mind.
Overall Stat Model: 8th
Confi”dance” Model: 6th
Aggregate Model: 14th
Power Rankings: 10th
Deki
Whispers…he’s healthy. After an injury plagued 2022, it seems that Deki is streaming towards a healthy 2023, and a potential turnaround from last season. His ability to performa t a top level was lmited last season due to the neck injury. Unless news comes out prior to the start of the tournament, I am banking Deki’s ability to compete over 4 rounds. Now the fact that Deki often struggles with the putter doesn’t bother me. We saw him figure it out at Augusta when he won the Masters, and there is nothing here that is going to tell me that he couldn’t get hot over 4 rounds. Yet, the biggest leverage here is simply ownership. If Deki is on his game then there is a shot at winning the TOC.
Overall Stat Model: 14th
Confi”Dance” Model: 18th
Aggregate Model: 17th
Power Rankings: 16th
Xander Schauffele
Where do your loyalties lie? With Rahm? JT? Morikawa? I’m going to ride DFS with Xander based on the fact that I am a firm believer that when push comes to shove, most are going to roster Justin Thomas in this pricing tier. While Xander has had plenty of issues closing out tournaments on a Sunday, a win for me would only be the cherry on top. Xander has massive top-5 finsihing ability and has all the tools to be in the optimal lineup on DK.
Overall Stat Model: 23rd
Confi”dance” Model: 1st
Aggregate Model: 14th
Power Rankings: 10th
The 19th Hole
Top Advice
Don't Suck
Additional Top Plays
Scheffler
JT
Hovland
Wild Cards
JJ Spaun
Luke List
Trey Mullinax
Tom Hoge
Mackenzie Hughes
JT Poston
Top 10 Overall Power Rankings (Stat Driven)
1. Jon Rham
2. Justin Thomas
3. VIktor Hovland
4. Tom Kim
5. Scottie Scheffler
6. Tony Finau
7. Corey Conners
8. Will Zalatoris
9. Patrick Cantlay
10. Matt Fitzpatrick
7K Power Rankings
1. Corey Conners
2. Russell Henley
3. Aaron Wise
4. Keegan Bradley
5. Billy Horschel
6. Seamus Power
7. KH Lee
8. Sepp Straka
9. Adam Scott
10. Sahith Theegala
Can't Do It
-Paul Casey...is he in the field? No...but it doesn't matter.
-Phil Mickelson...drink your coffee
-Depending on contest selection, fading Rahm and Thomas will get you different at the top. Large field you're just fine, but those smaller contests are going to lock you in at some really high ownership.
-Will Zalatoris- Coming off two herniated discs. Have I ever had one? Nope. Do I know anyone that had one? Nope. All I know is that it caused plenty of issues for Willy Z, and at this point getting through 4 rounds seems more of a mental hurdle that Zalatoris needs to get over before he's competing on a Sunday.
Highest Dance Floor Rankings
Xander Schauffele
Jon Rahm
Scottie Scheffler
Justin THomas
Tony Finau
Sungjae Im
Grab a brew...don't cost nothin...Core4 coming soon.
