That's Birdie All Day Long
The Core4
Hideki Matsuyama
Can he score? Yep. Can he hit it far? Yep. Is he coming in at single digit ownership? Yep. This week you need to get the top players right. If I can leverage the field with the upside that Matsuyama has it will be a massive advantage. Include the fact that Deki is only $8,800, which is a fantastic discount, makes my lineups even more likely to be unique in my GPP builds. Deki made the cut at the Northern Trust, and looked lost on approach. Some will jump the gun and say that his game is off, but I am going to bank on the fact that it might just be a blip in the radar. He hasn’t lost strokes on appraoch since February, and I’ll bank on the odds that he’ll return to form. Give me a hot putter and you could potentionally see him competing for a championship on Sunday.
Overall Stat Model: 5th
Confi”dance” Model: 5th
Aggregate Model: 4th
Power Rankings: 6th
Keegan Bradley
I spent too much time last week debating if Bradley would make my core 4. Wow, did I choose wrong. Bradley went out and finished 11th last weekend at the Northern Trust, and looked like a scoring machine. The 2021 stats don’t lie, and Bradley has been on a tear this year. We’ve seen multiple top-20 finishes, highlighted by a 2nd place finish at the Valspar. Bradley may not win this tournament, but don’t discount his upside or his ability to finish top-5. That’s all you need from a player who is priced below $8K. Bradley is a crash and burn type play. He’s either going to give you one hell of a week or he is going to be sitting pretty damn close to last place. Very rarely do we just get average mundane golf from the man from Woodstock, Vermont.
Overall Stat Model: 10th
Confi”dance” Model: 21st
Aggregate Model: 14th
Power Rankings: 23st
Viktor Hovland
Hovland has been on the Core 4 more than any other golfer since its conception. The truth is that Hovland is going to be as superstar on Tour, and our favorite Norwegian is only getting better. He already has two career wins under his belt, and his play at Major Championships has been supported with strong play as he has never finsihed worse than 30th in any that he’s participated in. Hovland…wait wait wait…isn’t this the same thing you wrote last week? Just about. I like Hovland here. He hits the ball far, he’s accurate, and ranks 3rd in teh field in bridie average when you’re looking at 2021 PGA stats. His ownership will come reduced thanks to the 43rd place last weekend, and touts continuing to stress that Hovland just isn’t a great Bentgrass greens putter. That’s fine. I agree the numbers show that. I just don’t think there is substantial data to say that it is definite.
Overall Stat Model: 6th
Confi”dance” Model: 4th
Aggregate Model: 4th
Power Rankings: 4th
Charley Hoffman
Hoffman is going to be popular this week, and it is because his game is made for this course. While he went through a mini slump after his 3rd place finish at the Charles Scwab, we witnessed some return to form at the Northern Trust. He gained 3.9 strokes on approach, 2.9 strokes tee to green, and 1.9 strokes putting to finish in 21st place. I have not doubt in my mind that Hoffman is going to garner double digit ownership, and that does mitigate his upside in this field. Yet, getting a lineup with all your guys near the top of not only the standings as well as DK scoring means that you’re going to have to play chalk somehwere. Many will tend to do this with the guys at the top of the board, and I’ll hope that those ownership projetions are just a little too high and we’ll gain a little bit of leverage to the field.
Overall Stat Model: 8th
Confi”dance” Model: 12th
Aggregate Model: 6th
Power Rankings: 18th
The 19th Hole
Top Advice
Don't Suck
Additional Top Plays
Jon Rahm
Collin Morikawa
Brooks Koepka
Rory McIIroy
Jhonattan "Frank" Vegas
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
High Risk Plays
Aaron Wise
Talor Gooch
Emiliano Grillo
Sebastian Munoz
Shane Lowry
Top 10 Overall Power Rankings (Stat Driven)
1. Jon Rahm
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Paul Casey
4. Viktor Hovland
5. Hideki Matsuyama
6. Daniel Berger
7. Bryson DeChambeau
8. Louis Oosthuizen
9. Brooks Koepka
10. Justin Thomas
7K Power Rankings
1. Shane Lowry
2. Charley Hoffman
3. Russell Henley
4. Keegan Bradley
5. Sergio Garcia
6. Jason Kokrak
7. Kevin Streelman
8. Cameron Tringale
9. Jhonattan Vegas
10. Harold Varner III
Can't Do It
-Can't throw all my eggs into driving distance
-Justin Thomas might end up 30% owned.
-Bryson DeChambeau's odds are better than playing him on DK. I'll leverage here.
-I don't think Keith Mitchell can do it against this field for 4 rounds.
Highest Cut% with 8%+ Ownership
Seamus Power - 55.34%
Jhonattan Vegas - 39.53%
Sam Burns - 36.98%
Russell Henley - 36.26%
Ian Poulter - 33.86%
Grab a brew...don't cost nothin...Core4 coming soon.
