That's Birdie All Day Long
The Core4
Bryson DeChambeau
I just can’t help myself. Bryson is coming in the lowest owned of all the big dogs with the lone exception being Matsuyama. He’s clouded in so much controversy at this moment that his ownership could come down below 5%. I am going overweight in my lineups this week, and I am adding him to my betting card as well. Regardless of what you think of his personality, his attitude or his golf game, DeChambeau has as much win equity as anyone to win this golf tournament. It may not be a pretty win, but I expect Bryson to make the cut, and play a massive role Sunday. In his last 10 touranments we’ve seen him gain strokes everywhere, including 4.6 strokes tee to green. We’ve seen the interviews with how this reminds players of Augusta and Donald Ross designs. All have treated Bryon pretty poorly. But if you want to leverage the field, this is hands down one of the easiests ways to eat chalk everywhere else and still be incredibly different.
Overall Stat Model: 5th
Confi”dance” Model: 5th
Aggregate Model: 14th
Power Rankings: 5th
Jason Kokrak
I guess I am really looking forward to some real pain this week. First Bryson and now Kokrak? Yes, I am well aware of how I often am slamming my head on the wall for rostering Kok’s or fading him at the wrong time. Either way, I am not letting hindsight bias get in the way in taking a massive shot in my GPP’s. The problem this week is that plenty of players are able to disect these slates with Fanshare Sports, Fantasy National and RickRunGood.com. Hence, why you’re getting tons of love for players that obviously fit this track. Does Kok’s fit the bill? His long term form does. Yet, I am taking advantage of a golfer that is ranked 25th in the OWGR and is mispriced. Do you remember Corey Connors at the Masters? While this price isn’t as egregious as that, it still seems like it is a free square for the weekend. The only major concern is that he is going under projected in ownership, but we have seen some suspect recent form out of the Musketeer. This has been a talking point all week on plenty of shows, and it could come to fruition. I’ll bank on regression, and the ability to play like the good ole’ Kokrak.
Overall Stat Model: 17th
Confi”dance” Model: 19th
Aggregate Model: 24th
Power Rankings: 21st
Viktor Hovland
Hovland has been on the Core 4 more than any other golfer since its conception. The truth is that Hovland is going to be as superstar on Tour, and our favorite Norwegian is only getting better. He already has two career wins under his belt, and his play at Major Championships has been supported with strong play as he has never finsihed worse than 30th in any that he’s participated in. Hovland, like Kokrak, is not coming in with the best form. Regardless, the long term success is plenty for me to add him to the core 4. Hovland ranks 6th overall in my longterm form model built specifically for this touranment. Many will argue that Hovland doesn’t have success on Bentgrass. I would tend to agree, but we are working with a limited sample size. He has only played 69 rounds on greens of this style. This isn’t enough to simply categorize Hovland as a poor Bentgrass putter.
Overall Stat Model: 7th
Confi”dance” Model: 7th
Aggregate Model: 4th
Power Rankings: 10th
Sam Burns
Burns is exactly who I want rounding out the Core 4. He is volitile, under owned, and can break a slate with his ability to score. Now if you have rostered Burns before, you know how frustrating he can get. On the flip side you know how he can literally turn Sunday into a massive payday for any lineup containing 6/6 golfers. In fact, last time Burns lit me up was when I had an outright on him at the WGC-St. Jude. I digress. Since January he has had 5 top-5 finishes including a win at the Valspar. The 25 year-old really put a lot of his game together this year, and I’ll take a chance on that his strong 2021 campaign will continue here at the Northern Trust.
Overall Stat Model: 32nd
Confi”dance” Model: 25th
Aggregate Model: 19th
Power Rankings: 17th
The 19th Hole
Top Advice
Don't Suck
Additional Top Plays
Jon Rahm
Collin Morikawa
Brooks Koepka
Rory McIIroy
Jhonattan "Frank" Vegas
Cam Davis
Xander Schauffele
High Risk Plays
Aaron Wise
Keegan Bradley
Luke List
Denny McCarthy
Talor Gooch
Emiliano Grillo
Cameron Tringale
Top 10 Overall Power Rankings (Stat Driven)
1. Jon Rahm
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Daniel Berger
4. Jordan Spieth
5. Bryson DeChambeau
6. Dusting Johnson
7. Brooks Koepka
8. Paul Casey
9. Rory McIIroy
10. Viktor Hovland
7K Power Rankings
1. Tyrell Hatton
2. Charley Hoffman
3. Jason Kokrak
4. Shane Lowry
5. Kevin Streelman
6. Keegan Bradley
7. Sergio Garcia
8. Russell Henley
9. Emiliano Grillo
10. Cameron Tringale
Highest Cut% with 8%+ Ownership
Seamus Power - 55.34%
Jhonattan Vegas - 39.53%
Sam Burns - 36.98%
Russell Henley - 36.26%
Ian Poulter - 33.86%
Can't Do It
The Ryder Cup Narrative
Sergio Garcia
Tyrell Hatton ( will make the cut, but no impact)
Grab a brew...don't cost nothin...Core4 coming soon.
