That's Birdie All Day Long
The Core4
Webb Simpson
Is it just me or has Webb back to being overlooked in a tournament where we are guaranteed 4 rounds of golf? There are a few things here that put me on Webb in both DFS and in the sports betting market. We are looking at a course where length helps but isn’t they key to dominating this course. In addition, these are some small greens that are asking for players to find the agua. Simpson has been a prolific ball striker and appraoch player all his career and that could easily benefit him here. Finally, the leverage is massive when most are considering building their lineups with one of the big dogs. Webb is the top scrambler in the field, avoids bogeys like a wizard with a wedge, and can hit fairways all day long.
Overall Stat Model: 38th
Confi”dance” Model: 28th
Aggregate Model: 36th
Power Rankings: 29th
Abraham Ancer
Ancer is coming off a no cut at event after finishing T14th at the Tokyo Olympic games. While the sentiment of fading players that played at the Olympics has only grown somewhat popular, it is something that I am not going to buy into. These guys travel in luxury. Especially those who have won on tour…albeit zero PGA Tour victories. The point being is that the experience from last weekend is going to benefit Ancer. Now he does come with some risk. Historically, on courses of this style, he has not always lived up to expectations. Yet, he did finish 15th at last years St. Jude and could potentionally top-10 this week with his current form. Over his last five touranments he’s gained 5 strokes tee to green, and is gaining nearly 2-strokes gained on the dance floor. Give me a hot putter this weekend, and he will be in the mix on Sunday.
Overall Stat Model: 2nd
Confi”dance” Model: 13th
Aggregate Model: 9th
Power Rankings: 14th
Daniel Berger
This play might get chalky, and I am okay with that. Everyone is well aware of Berger’s upside, and I am going to take advantage. I’m under the impression that most balance builds are going to start with Berger. If this is the case it will be important to get different somewhere in your lineup builds are you do have the potential to sink or swim with the majority. A way to do this is aggregate your ownership below 80 and you should get plenty different in any GPP. Berger’s upside has been on display this year. A win at the AT&T as well as plenty of top-10 finishes. The most recent coming at the Open where he finished 8th.
Overall Stat Model: 5th
Confi”dance” Model: 5th
Aggregate Model: 11th
Power Rankings: 8th
Corey Conners
For the record I never get Conners right. But that is just personal bias, and I am aware that it is simply random that when I play him he tends to struggle. Conners’ ranks 7th in the field in hitting fairways, and I’ve stressed over and over again how important it is to appraoch these pins from the short grass. The rough will not be that penal, but approach shots will not be as pinpoint from a thick bentgrass. Conners is our favorite Canadian, and we are hoping that he is in the mix Sunday.
Overall Stat Model: 4th
Confi”dance” Model: 12th
Aggregate Model: 10th
Power Rankings: 15th
The 19th Hole
They Almost Made the Core
Collin Morikawa
Rory McIIroy
Dustin Johnson
Viktor Hovland
Top 10 Overall Power Rankings (Stat Driven)
1. Collin Morikawa
2. Jordan Spieth
3. Xander Shauffele
4. Brooks Koepka
5. Louis Oosthuizen
6. Viktor Hovland
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Daniel Berger
9. Justin Thomas
10. Paul Casey
7K Power Rankings
1. Tyrell Hatton
2. Sergio Garcia
3. Jason Kokrak
4. Harris English
5. Will Zalatoris
6. Sungjae Im
7. Brian Harman
8. Justin Rose
9. Adam Scott
10. Ian Poulter
Highest Cut% with 8%+ Ownership
Mito Pereira - 40.17% (I'm still going to play him)
Chez Reavie - 39.85%
Luke List - 37.62%
Charl Schwartzel - 37.23%
Matthew Wolff - 35.75%
Hank Lebioda - 35.18%
Doug Ghim - 33.96%
Can't Do It
Doug Ghim
Sergio Garcia (it just feels wrong)
Grab a brew...don't cost nothin...Core4 coming soon.
