That's Birdie All Day Long
4ore PLay
Jon Rahm
Rahm comes to this U.S. Open in a very unique spot. He is one of the better players on Tour, but he isn’t winning. He hasn’t won in a while. Fans have seen the and researched the recent wins for Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy. If you’ve paid any attention to the PGA Tour, you should be well aware of the run that Scheffler went on through the Masters. The point here is that Rahm gets little attention with the lone exception being his struggles around the green this season. Now a lot of DFS players aim to select the winner in this tier, and I don’t disagree that it isn’t important. Yet, the key is DraftKings scoring and Rahm dominates with the best of them. Many players are going to select the chalk up in this top tier. Yet, reverse engineering your build process creates pivots that lead to unique linups built for smaller contests. I mentioned on the show that I am signing up for less opponents, and not the mili-maker. While I do consider myself lucky, I am just not going to try and punch that lotto ticket. Selecting Rahm gives me last years best golfer, and a player who is going to be searching for some sparks to close out this year. Remember, Rahm is only 27-years old and just entering the prime of his career. He landed his first major last year, and his resume’ continues to grow season after season. The U.S. Open demands the best from its players over 4 rounds. Rham can certainly do that, and I’ll leverage his 10% ownership over the rest of this top-tier that is upwards near 25%. Rahmbo is comin’ for you.
Overall Stat Model: 2nd
Confi”Dance” Model: 3rd
Aggregate Model: 1st
Power Rankings: 2nd
Hideki Matsuyama
Deki’s struggles this season stem from injury and not from swing flaws or missing components in his game. The neck has been an issue, but the great news is that it seems those injuries are a things of the past. Since winning the Masters, Deki has transformed his game. I believe a lot of this stems from his confidence and now the support that he is getting world wide and not just from his home country of Japan. Looking at his field rankings in 2022, he ranks 5th in ball striking, 8th in approach, 9th in GIR, 21st in scrambling, 30th around the green, and 12th in bogey avoidance. Having followed Matsuyama for a while, he also is a great bounce back player as we can anticipate there will be a few bogeys through every round. Many are discussing how well Xander plays at the events, and there really is no argument against his track record. Yet, look at the past five years of Deki’s U.S. Open history and you’ll find an average finish of 16th place. While it certainly isn’t on the Xander level of tournmaent history, it surely is impressive for a guy who already has a major under his belt. Deki is my pivot away from Xander in the event that X fails to meet expectations. Regression is a possibility for Xander as it isn’t guaranteed he’ll be finishing top-10 again. Keep that in mind when constructing your lineups.
Overall Stat Model: 4th
Confi”dance” Model: 9th
Aggregate Model: 9th
Power Rankings: 8th
Aaaaaron Wise
At the beginning of the season, Wise was everyone’s favorite pivot. Which, ultimately led to chalk Aaron Wise, and now we’ve arrived to the ignored version. Much of DFS is what have you done for me lately, and really not taking a look at the metrics as to how well a player is managing 18 holes over a PGA Tour season. As we look at ownership, plenty have little memory of how revered Wise was at the beginning of the season. Now this doesn’t mean that Wise doesn’t have flaws in his game, but I am going to take the upside of the 44th OWGR as well as his Tour stats from 2022. In the field, Wise ranks 14th in ball striking, 22nd from T2G, 22nd in scrambling, 35th around the green, and 24th in scoring. Yet, the most appealing stat that I have seen from this season is that he ranks in the top-20 in both bogey average as well as bogey avoidance. Now while Wise isn’t a seasoned veteran on the PGA Tour, he has played in enough majors to withstand the pressure and be well aware of how a U.S. Open is going to challenge his game specifically. I don’t think Wise can win, but I do believe in his ability to avoid bogeys and rack up DK points.
Overall Stat Model: 23rd
Confi”Dance” Model: 23rd
Aggregate Model: 29th
Power Rankings: 21st
Harold Varner III
This really comes down to confidence for me. Since winning across the pond, it appears fans have seen a more aggressive and confident HV3. Looking just at his last 5 events, Varner hasn’t finished lower than 50th, and he’s been in the top-30 in 4 of those 5 tournaments. He’s striking the ball well and it is reflecting in his game. The main concern I have with HV3 as a 4ORE PLAY is his uncanny ability to lose control of any club off the tee. He does rank in the lower half of the field off the tee. Yet, where there is worry there is promise. Varner is one of the better scramblers in this field as he ranks 18th and more importantly ranks 4th around the green. The rough around those dance floors is nasty, and if he misses anything on approach I like his chances at getting up and down. Varner is an agressive play. When looking at the three prior 4ORE PLAY selections, there is an obvious concern in that he has not won on PGA Tour. Added concerns would be that Varner has never made a cut at the U.S. Open and that his best finish at a major championship is 23rd. The risk is real. I’m okay with that.
Overall Stat Model: 32nd
Confi”dance” Model: 34th
Aggregate Model: 34th
Power Rankings: 42nd
Overall Stat Model: 18th
Confi”dance” Model: 35th
Aggregate Model: 45th
Power Rankings: 36th
The 19th Hole
Top Advice
Don't Suck
Additional Top Plays
Cam Smith
Justin Thomas
Matt Fitzpatrick
Shane Lowry
Sam Burns
Wild Cards
Thomas Pieters
Adam Scott
Brooks Koepka
Daniel Berger
Joaquin Niemann
The Putters
***These guys don't appear as strong plays in your overall stat models, but have the goods on the dance floor to thrive in this tournament if they can put it together for 4 rounds. They are high risk plays, but as we've seen in just about every tournament, all you need is a hot putter. These are plays that I may or may not be considering, but use this for your information and process.
Jonas Blixt
Wyndham Clark
Patrick Rodgers
Webb Simpson
Marc Leishman
Nick Taylor
Sepp Stratka
Watch Me Deliver
***These players hit greens like no other, but they just aren't pushing your models to the limit. Put it together for 4 rounds and pepper those greens, and you could reap the benefits. These are high risk plays, but nothing pays like low owned top-10 finishers who are smashing birdies over four rounds. These are plays I may or may not roster.
Adam Scott
Guido Migliozzi
Scott Stallings
Bryson DeChambeau
Throbjorn Olesen
KH Lee
Tom Hoge
Top 10 Overall Power Rankings (Stat Driven)
1. Justin Thomas
2. Jon Rahm
3. Rory McIIroy
4. Xander Schauffele
5. Joaquin Niemann
6. Sam Burns
7. Cameron Smith
8. Hideki Matsuyama
9. Scottie Scheffler
10. Will Zalatoris
7K Power Rankings
1. Corey Conners
2. Mito Pereira
3. Sungjae Im
4. Aaron Wise
5. Keegan Bradley
6. Abraham Ancer
7. Sebastian Munoz
8. Russell Henley
9. Davis Riley
10. Talor Gooch
Can't Do It
-Paul Casey...we fade this guy even when he's not playing.
-Xander Schauffele- This guy could easily backdoor a top-10, but what makes me cautious is the price. Xander coming in at $9600 is a potential bust spot. I think Xander makes the cut. I think he plays okay. I just don't anticipate his value will be enough to off-set his ownership.
Highest MC% at 8%+ Ownership
Webb Simpson - 41.47%
Davis Riley - 38.95%
HV3 - 38.85%
Justin Rose - 38.54%
Keegan Bradley - 37.85%
Grab a brew...don't cost nothin...Core4 coming soon.
