That's Birdie All Day Long
4ore PLay
Sam Burns
There is just no way to not pivot to Burns here. With all the ownership projections leading towards Rory, Xander and Cantlay, there is no possible way I’m not going to try and leverage all three of those players who are coming in at over 20% ownership. Compare this to Burns, who is in the low teens, and I feel that it is a massive advantage. In the lower cost single entries I anticipate that these ownership projections stay the same, but in the high entry fee contests, I anticipate this number to be much higher. Burns fits so well here, and for whatever reason, is going very unoticed leading up to the Travelers. Now, the one thing that does concern me is that he does get the R1 afternoon tee time, and because of this I don’t see him lighting it up on day one. That morning tee time is going to have such an edge thanks to all the rain and potential scoring conditions that these players will see. Still, when Burns makes the cut, we will have the potential to see him crush the weekend and has the potential to win this tournament. Burns course history is pretty impressive as well. He has three straight made cuts with two top-25 finishes. Get those DK points Mr. 3-time winner….cross your fingers….4-time winner.
Overall Stat Model: 1st
Confi”Dance” Model: 4th
Aggregate Model: 1st
Power Rankings: 1st
Webb Simpson
How’s the neck? Pretty damn good if you ask me. Plenty are going in a different direction than the 36-year old. Webb missed the cut last week at the U.S. Open. I get that it is a cause for concern, but to reduce his ownership to less than 10% feels like a massive steal when you consider his pedigree. Simpson has won 7 times on Tour, with one of those wins being a major championship. Plenty will argue SG: Old, but I’m just not on board with that concept. Simpson could have easily left for LIV at this point, and it doesn’t sound like he’s going anytime soon. Simpson’s course history is limitied. In the last five years we’ve seen a missed cut as well as a top-10 finish. Sadly, we don’t have the history here like from a Jason Day. Yet, Webb has all the intangibles to succeed here. Nailing fairways allows him to showcase his approach play. I also love the fact that he has the AM/PM tee draw for the first two round. We are attempting to leverage the top tier with Burns, and with Simpson, we are looking to roster him when most will doubt either his injury or his recent form.
Overall Stat Model: 25th
Confi”dance” Model: 17th
Aggregate Model: 12th
Power Rankings: 16th
Tom Hoge
Another play where I am hoping to cash in on the AM/PM wave. I understand that the form Hoge had going into the AT&T Pro-AM was a little different than it is now, but there are too many similarities to dismiss from Pebble Beach to TPC River Highlands. The goal here is that Hoge get rolling right away in round 1. Now there is plenty of risk here if you’re a massive believer in recent form. Hoge has missed three straight cuts, and to be honest, he typically goes through once of these MC streaks about every PGA Tour season. Some last three tournaments, but we have seen that number jump all the way 5. Yet, as we have seen on several occasion, Hoge often finds a way top-20 once he makes a cut. He is a weekend gridner, and I am going to take advantage of his upside when most are considering him a non-factor.
Overall Stat Model: 23rd
Confi”Dance” Model: 23rd
Aggregate Model: 22nd
Power Rankings: 23rd
Kevin Kisner
He has been awful. We are talking 5 straight missed cuts, but still maintains the 31st position in the OWGR. Talk about staying power. Now Kisner does have hope. In the second round of the U.S. Open, he gained nearly two strokes on approach. It is massive improvement when you look at the previous three events where he nearly lost 2 strokes in the same category. The biggest issue for Kisner in this brutal streak has been the putter. Typcially, that is Kisner’s saving grace from falling out of contention. Good putters don’t stay cold for very long, and even though the form is brutal, I’m willing to chance it with the 25-year old. Get hot young man, and bring in some value in that AM/PM wave. A little quick nugget. In the past three years here at the Travelers, 2/3 of those tournaments led to a top-20 finish.
Overall Stat Model: 60th
Confi”dance” Model: 52nd
Aggregate Model: 52nd
Power Rankings: 53rd
The 19th Hole
Top Advice
Don't Suck
Additional Top Plays
Xander Schauffle
Rory McIIroy
Jason Day
Brendon Todd
Lanto Griffin
Wild Cards
Brooks Koepka
Justin Thomas
Sungjae Im
...relax...it is a joke...
Cameron Tringale
Chez Reavie
Doug Ghim
CT Pan
Matt NeSmith
The Putters
***These guys don't appear as strong plays in your overall stat models, but have the goods on the dance floor to thrive in this tournament if they can put it together for 4 rounds. They are high risk plays, but as we've seen in just about every tournament, all you need is a hot putter. These are plays that I may or may not be considering, but use this for your information and process.
Cameron Davis
Brendon Todd
Brandt Snedeker
Stewart Cink
Charley Hoffman
Tommy Fleetwood
Watch Me Deliver
***These players hit greens like no other, but they just aren't pushing your models to the limit. Put it together for 4 rounds and pepper those greens, and you could reap the benefits. These are high risk plays, but nothing pays like low owned top-10 finishers who are smashing birdies over four rounds. These are plays I may or may not roster.
Chez Reavie
Brendon Todd
Cameron Davis
Patrick Rodgers
Brian Stuard
Emiliano Grillo
Top 10 Overall Power Rankings (Stat Driven)
1. Sam Burns
2. Rory McIIroy
3. Joaquin Niemann
4. Tony Finau
5. Xander Schauffele
6. Scottie Scheffler
7. Keegan Bradley
8. Patrick Cantlay
9. Jordan Spieth
10. Aaron Wise
7K Power Rankings
1. K.H. Lee
2. Si Woo Kim
3. Luke List
4. C.T. Pan
5. Maverick McNealy
6. Tom Hoge
7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
8. Jhonattan Vegas
9. Brendon Todd
10. Joel Dahmen
Can't Do It
-Paul Casey...we fade this guy even when he's not playing.
-Brendon Todd- He wins so much with his putter, and I'm not going to buy into the masses that are banking on his recent form to continue. Too small of a sample size to consider this one of his favorite tracks, and even with a made cut, is someone that won't get you enough to place near the top.
Highest MC% at 8%+ Ownership
Grab a brew...don't cost nothin...Core4 coming soon.
